The Evolution of Threat Networks in Latin America

The economic and political environments in Latin America have been advantageous for local, regional, and transnational threat networks. Specifically, technology, increased international trade and economic interdependence, heightened interest in natural resources for profit, synthetic drug production, economic disparities, corruption, impunity, and unstable political conditions have led to a complex web of opportunities that requires new, progressive ways to address criminal activities. The creativity of threat networks along with their entrepreneurial strategies have resulted in increasing power and influence. Despite efforts by the United States and some governments in Latin America to combat these networks, the everchanging global environment has worked in their favor. Indeed, some countries in Central and South America are in danger of transforming into what Jorge Chabat described as “criminally possessed states.” Furthermore, gangs in Central America, especially in Honduras where MS-13 has become more closely linked to drug trafficking, have reduced local extortion, become more aware of their nascent political power and have even engaged in rudimentary social welfare provision.https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/jgi_research/1003/thumbnail.jp

Military Contingencies in Megacities and Sub-Megacities

Urbanization is one of the most important mega-trends of the 21st century. Consequently, the possibility of U.S. military involvement in a megacity or sub-megacity is an eventuality that cannot be ignored. After elucidating the nature of urbanization and developing a typology in terms of smart, fragile, and feral cities, we give consideration to the kinds of contingencies that the U.S. military, especially the Army, needs to think about and prepare for. Understanding the city as a complex system or organism is critical and provides the basis for changes in intelligence, recruitment, training, equipment, operations, and tactics. One of the key takeaways is the need to understand the urban environment and the need to work with (instead of against) the flows and rhythms of a city. Without such an approach, the results of military involvement in such a formidable environment would likely be disastrous; with it, the prospects for success would at least be enhanced.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1416/thumbnail.jp

The Primary PE and School Sport Premium

Central to London’s successful bid to host the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games, was the Government’s commitment to improve competitive sport and the sporting habits of young people (Ofsted, 2014). On the 12th March 2013, the then Prime Minister, David Cameron, announced that Primary Schools in England would receive funding worth £150 million per year to create a sustainable infrastructure for long-lasting change and improve the provision of physical education (PE) and sport across all state maintained primary schools. Speaking at the time, he said: ‘We can create a culture in our schools that encourages all children to be active and enjoy sport.’ He added: ‘The Olympic and Paralympic Games marked an incredible year for this country and I will always be proud that we showed the world what Britain can do. I want to ensure the Games count for the future too and that means capitalising on the inspiration young people took from what they saw during those summer months.’: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/21808982 Six years on, and with a total investment now of over £1.2 billion, the Primary PE and Sport Premium (here onwards referred to as the PESS Premium) has been a defining feature of the London 2012 legacy. Invariably funding streams at this level do not last forever or in the same format, which raises significant questions about what impact the funding has had on young people since 2013. We believe that a significant investment from Government merits debate and accountability at the highest possible level and that it should acknowledge where the opportunities and shortcomings of such a policy have left us. During the years of austerity, mounting concerns have arisen over the present and long term state of children’s health and the need for the debate to be heard is now imperative. To date there has been little critical appraisal of the PESS Premium funding. This report aims to begin a necessary process and in doing so, brings together evidence from across the sector to consider the future of the PESS Premium post 2018. During the course of the report, we outline and underpin the holistic value and importance of PE for every child. We examine the historic status and funding of PE and Sport and the nature and increasing diversity of the workforce. How has the PESS Premium funding impacted the way in which the subject is regarded and the ability of those tasked with delivering it to discharge their responsibilities? We have uncovered an abiding uncertainty about the nature of the PESS Premium itself; the ways in which it may be spent and its effect on an increasing divide between PE specialists, generalists and externally contracted coaches. Will its legacy be to have established a secure foundation for lifelong physical activity, sport and education – or is it, in effect, another temporarily seductive mirage, leaving PE precisely where it has become accustomed to be; regularly sidelined, delivered largely by those who are not qualified teachers and perpetuating the status quo for the children who already belong to groups that are perceived to be at a disadvantage? The PESS Premium funding is a significant sum and these questions deserve answers. This report is therefore our contribution to an essential debate, containing practical suggestions that we hope will be of use to policy makers. We invite all who care about the physical and mental health and emotional wellbeing of children to join the discussion

Green Crab (Carcinus maenas) Foraging Efficiency Reduced by Fast Flows

Predators can strongly influence prey populations and the structure and function of ecosystems, but these effects can be modified by environmental stress. For example, fluid velocity and turbulence can alter the impact of predators by limiting their environmental range and altering their foraging ability. We investigated how hydrodynamics affected the foraging behavior of the green crab (Carcinus maenas), which is invading marine habitats throughout the world. High flow velocities are known to reduce green crab predation rates and our study sought to identify the mechanisms by which flow affects green crabs. We performed a series of experiments with green crabs to determine: 1) if their ability to find prey was altered by flow in the field, 2) how flow velocity influenced their foraging efficiency, and 3) how flow velocity affected their handling time of prey. In a field study, we caught significantly fewer crabs in baited traps at sites with fast versus slow flows even though crabs were more abundant in high flow areas. This finding suggests that higher velocity flows impair the ability of green crabs to locate prey. In laboratory flume assays, green crabs foraged less efficiently when flow velocity was increased. Moreover, green crabs required significantly more time to consume prey in high velocity flows. Our data indicate that flow can impose significant chemosensory and physical constraints on green crabs. Hence, hydrodynamics may strongly influence the role that green crabs and other predators play in rocky intertidal communities

A new integrated and homogenized global monthly land surface air temperature dataset for the period since 1900

A new dataset of integrated and homogenized monthly surface air temperature over global land for the period since 1900 [China Meteorological Administration global Land Surface Air Temperature (CMA-LSAT)] is developed. In total, 14 sources have been collected and integrated into the newly developed dataset, including three global (CRUTEM4, GHCN, and BEST), three regional and eight national sources. Duplicate stations are identified, and those with the higher priority are chosen or spliced. Then, a consistency test and a climate outlier test are conducted to ensure that each station series is quality controlled. Next, two steps are adopted to assure the homogeneity of the station series: (1) homogenized station series in existing national datasets (by National Meteorological Services) are directly integrated into the dataset without any changes (50% of all stations), and (2) the inhomogeneities are detected and adjusted for in the remaining data series using a penalized maximal t test (50% of all stations). Based on the dataset, we re-assess the temperature changes in global and regional areas compared with GHCN-V3 and CRUTEM4, as well as the temperature changes during the three periods of 1900–2014, 1979–2014 and 1998–2014. The best estimates of warming trends and there 95% confidence ranges for 1900–2014 are approximately 0.102 ± 0.006 °C/decade for the whole year, and 0.104 ± 0.009, 0.112 ± 0.007, 0.090 ± 0.006, and 0.092 ± 0.007 °C/decade for the DJF (December, January, February), MAM, JJA, and SON seasons, respectively. MAM saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900–2014 and 1979–2014. For an even shorter and more recent period (1998–2014), MAM, JJA and SON show similar warming trends, while DJF shows opposite trends. The results show that the ability of CMA-LAST for describing the global temperature changes is similar with other existing products, while there are some differences when describing regional temperature changes

From the New Middle Ages to a New Dark Age: The Decline of the State and U.S. Strategy

Security and stability in the 21st century have little to do with traditional power politics, military conflict between states, and issues of grand strategy. Instead they revolve around the disruptive consequences of globalization, declining governance, inequality, urbanization, and nonstate violent actors. The author explores the implications of these issues for the United States. He proposes a rejection of “stateocentric” assumptions and an embrace of the notion of the New Middle Ages characterized, among other things, by competing structures, fragmented authority, and the rise of “no-go” zones. He also suggests that the world could tip into a New Dark Age. He identifies three major options for the United States in responding to such a development. The author argues that for interventions to have any chance of success the United States will have to move to a trans-agency approach. But even this might not be sufficient to stanch the chaos and prevent the continuing decline of the Westphalian state.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1644/thumbnail.jp

Drug Trafficking, Violence, and the State in Mexico

Each month a member of the SSI faculty writes an editorial for our monthly newsletter. This is the Op-Ed for the April 2009 newsletter

Cyberspace: Malevolent Actors, Criminal Opportunities, and Strategic Competition

This volume has three parts: the first focuses on cyberspace itself; the second on some of the major forms of malevolence or threats that have become one of its defining characteristics; and the third on possible responses to these threats. One of the most significant features of cyberspace, however, is that it is becoming a risky place for the entire spectrum of users: nation-states, nongovernmental and transnational organizations, commercial enterprises, and individuals. Yet it is a space of opportunities—for benevolent, neutral, and malevolent actors. Moreover, the authors identify and assess the challenges and threats to security that can arise in cyberspace because of its unique nature. In the final section, the authors discuss a variety of responses, with some suggesting that the most favored options being pursued by the United States are poorly conceived and ill-suited to the tasks at hand.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1004/thumbnail.jp